Coronavirus and Hindsight Bias - Why Human Beings are Stupid

https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/briggsy/5yNCqjwt-image.png

When the threat of the Coronavirus first appeared in 2019, the medical communities of the world were afraid. Why? Because in the decades that we've studied various forms of this virus, the two cases where it mutated and became infectious to humans resulted in SARS and MERS, both of which were deadly outbreaks that were luckily contained. This time however, the virus had mutated so that it could infect the upper respiratory tract as well, resulting in running noses and sneezing, allowing the virus to spread from person to person a lot easier. Given the unknowns at the time, and the potential for widespread death, the world went into lock down. Not just the sick were confined to quarantine, but the healthy as well. The theoretical models were grim, to say the least, with widespread death predicted if people were not isolated from each other. The data however has proven to be far less grim. While the mortality rate for Covid19 is nowhere near what the models predicted, the secondary destruction to the already fragile economy, and to people's mental health is devastating. Below is a briefing with Dr. Erickson from California who discusses what the current data tells us. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw&t= Keep in mind, these are doctors and not politicians, so all the PR and spin that is normally present in the media is missing here, and replaced with their own professional bias. While their report is good news, what isn't so good is the people out there who are falling for hindsight bias. > **Hindsight bias**, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, refers to the common tendency for people to perceive events that have already occurred as having been more predictable than they actually were before the events took place. While this concept is something that is taught in elementary schools, as adults we forget the basics of intelligent thought and devolve into the blame game. Politicians, doctors, scientists, public relations... anyone perceived as overreacting at the start and deciding on a lockdown will be labelled as hoaxers and unqualified. The problem with hindsight bias, is that you have to be really dumb to be fooled into it, and yet so many people are. Had this virus ended up like TB or smallpox with a double digit mortality rate across the board (and not just with seniors and the chronically ill), the very same idiots would be cheering on the doctors, politicians, etc for acting decisively and saving lives. --- The other side of this coin is just as problematic. Those in charge who acted decisively must now save face in the onslaught of the dumbest of us, and pretend as though the pandemic is still horrific, and that they are the heros. They must justify their prior actions in order to maintain order and confidence in their given authority. For the politicians and medical academics to come out and say they were wrong would be a much bigger mistake, as technically they were neither wrong nor right, and had to act on whatever information they had available. But good luck explaining this to your average citizen out there that is ready to strangle someone after being in what amounts to minimum security prison for two months, combined with a media that are motivated by profit through fear. Damned if you do,damned if you don't. Because we don't know the future, and can only act on the information available, the course of action taken was the correct course. If you disagree, please never run for any kind of public office, and avoid any kind of responsibility for others if you can. Its so very easy to look back in the past, knowing what we know now, and wag our finger at those in charge for overreacting. However, the same people who wag their finger are probably too cowardly to run for public office, or have the courage to make a decisive choice when there are no correct choices. But you can't fix stupid. The conspiracy nuts are already in overdrive on this one. Coronavirus was a hoax, don't you know? Yep, you can't fix stupid. Even worse, if we do face another pandemic in the near future, those in power will face great pressure to under-react instead. The problem with a pandemic is that you don't know how deadly it is until after it has already run through a population, at which point the idiots with hindsight bias will tell everyone after the fact whether the course of action taken was correct. --- this of course doesn't address the billionaires who have profited greatly from this chaos, or the bankers and politicians who have progressed their agenda of UBI forward by many years. The economy was already on the verge of total collapse, this much was already certain, but it was still functioning. If you want to point the torches and pitchforks at anyone, point it at those pulling the strings, and not the puppets in government, because guess what? the next guy or gal you elect to office is going to answer to the same masters, and will be directed to make the same decisions. And, once this is over with we will still have to face the fact that we're at the end of a grand credit cycle. If there is any hoax, its the bankers and politicians blaming the economic collapse on the Coronavirus. It was plain as day months ago that they were looking for a scapegoat to pin their failing system onto, and a scapegoat they got in the form of covid19. Now the question is, will the general public be too dumb to see through this obvious ruse? probably. Thanks for dropping by.
Originally posted here: https://hive.blog/coronavirus/@briggsy/coronavirus-and-hindsight-bias-why-human-beings-are-stupid